Soybean meal supply and demand determine the tone of medium and long-term price operation. How about

From the demand side, due to the rapid development of China's feed breeding industry, domestic consumption of soybean meal has shown a rigid growth trend in recent years. In the last 10 years, the growth low point appeared in 13/14 years, and the domestic consumption of soybean meal increased by 4.88% annually. In the following three years, soybean meal consumption grew between 9.04% and 9.55%. In 17/18, China's soybean meal consumption is expected to increase from 68.646 million tons to 73.87 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.61%, slightly declining but maintaining a steady momentum.



From the point of view of consumption structure, almost all consumption of soybean meal in China comes from imported soybean. In the past 16/17 years, China has imported 93.495 million tons of soybean, of which 88 million tons are used for oil extraction. If a rough conversion is made according to the theoretical yield of 78.5%, the crushed soybean meal is 69.08 million tons, which is only 616,000 tons short of the actual output of soybean meal in 16/17 years. In this sense, the external dependence of soybean meal in China has reached 99.12%. Imported soybean meal can cover all domestic soybean meal consumption, and a small part of it is used for export. So we must focus on the global market when we analyze the supply of soybean meal.